RIYADH: The plastics economy is shifting toward a more circular, digital, and decarbonized model, thanks to rising government regulations and corporate sustainability plans. Yet many regions, including the Gulf, still face major policy and infrastructure gaps.

As sustainability regulations tighten and circular economy initiatives expand, global demand for recycled plastics is projected to exceed supply by 25 to 35 million tons by 2030, even though current mechanical recycling rates remain below 10 percent, according to a joint report by Strategy& and the Riyadh-based King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.

In the Gulf region, despite growing awareness and the rollout of recycling initiatives, nearly 10 million tons of plastic waste are generated each year, only 10 percent of which is recycled.

While this figure aligns with the global average, it falls short of countries such as China, which achieved a recycling rate of more than 30 percent in 2021.

Virgin plastic, produced from fossil fuels, remains far cheaper to manufacture in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than recycled alternatives, leaving little incentive for private sector investment in advanced recycling systems.

“The abundant availability of economically attractive virgin plastics in the Gulf fundamentally undermines the financial viability of recycling ventures,” said Maher Al-Rashed, associate professor of plastic science at King Saud University.

“This scenario has historically stalled essential private sector investment in sophisticated recycling infrastructure, perpetuating a linear economy characterized by extensive landfilling, litter and ecological degradation.”

Reducing reliance on virgin plastics, Al-Rashed said, is strategically imperative for Saudi Arabia.

Minimizing virgin plastic consumption contributes to mitigating climate change by curbing greenhouse gas emissions and alleviating pressure on waste management infrastructure.

According to the report, circular plastics policy frameworks in the GCC countries are still maturing.

Key regulatory tools such as producer responsibility rules, mandatory recycling targets, and product design standards to ensure packaging is recyclable from the outset are still lacking across the region.

“Saudi Arabia’s transformation from a major virgin plastic producer to an influential leader in circular plastic solutions demands the implementation of comprehensive regulatory frameworks,” Al-Rashed said.

This includes “robust recycling targets, mandatory recycled-content standards, and stringent Extended Producer Responsibility legislation — coupled strategically with significant governmental and private sector investments in state-of-the-art recycling technologies and infrastructures.”

Al-Rashed added the GCC nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, must proactively introduce market-driven regulatory frameworks that recalibrate economic incentives and nurture sustainable recycling ecosystems, aligned with Vision 2030’s environmental aspirations.

In response to these gaps, the National Center for Waste Management, known as MWAN, said the Kingdom has already taken major steps to build the institutional foundation for sustainable waste practices.

“Over the past five years, the waste sector has undergone a major transformation, starting with the establishment of a regulator (MWAN), the passing of a new advanced Waste Management Law, and publishing detailed Technical Guidelines, as well as the development of a comprehensive Master Plan for all waste infrastructure covering the entire geography of the Kingdom,” a MWAN spokesperson told Arab News.

“MWAN has already made significant progress in addressing those issues to bridge the gap and achieve ambitious strategic targets, including a 90 percent diversion from landfills and 79 percent of waste prepared for recycling by 2040.

“Such comprehensive measures would significantly advance Saudi Arabia’s circular economy, actualizing its Vision 2030 ambitions for environmental stewardship and sustainable waste management.”

To bridge the supply gap for recycling plants, the GCC has increasingly turned to importing plastic waste. The region brought in approximately 50,000 tons of plastic waste in 2024, with Saudi Arabia accounting for more than half, according to the report.

These imports help feed early-stage plants and keep them operational, but Al-Rashed said that this is not a viable long-term solution.

“Long-term sustainability necessitates the swift establishment of comprehensive domestic waste collection and recycling infrastructures, reducing reliance on imports and ultimately fostering a self-sufficient and robust circular economy,” he said.

He added that “extensive public education campaigns to enhance civic engagement, coupled with the development of smart, data-driven waste management systems, will greatly enhance the quality and consistency of recyclable feedstock.”

The KAPSARC report points out that chemical recycling is highly sensitive to feedstock quality and energy inputs, raising questions about its environmental impact in fossil fuel-rich regions.

Al-Rashed said that chemical recycling offers substantial potential within the Gulf region, particularly for addressing challenging plastic waste streams unsuitable for conventional recycling methods.

“However, its environmental viability is contingent upon integrating renewable energy resources, robust regulatory oversight, and stringent environmental management practices.”

According to the report, demand for recycled plastics is growing at 8 percent annually, outpacing virgin plastic demand, which is increasing at just 2 percent.

However, global recycling infrastructure struggles to keep pace, with current capacity meeting less than 70 percent of demand, a gap that is projected to widen.

To close this gap and meet future recycling needs, the GCC will require between $12 billion and $25 billion in plastic waste infrastructure investment by 2045, or approximately $1.2 billion per year, according to industry assessments cited in the report.

These funds would support the development of collection systems, mechanical and chemical recycling facilities, and the technology required to align with international standards.

“Comprehensive recycling policies and initiatives significantly elevate the quality of life in Saudi Arabia by establishing cleaner, healthier urban environments, substantially reducing pollution and its associated public health impacts, and protecting the Kingdom’s rich biodiversity and natural heritage,” said Al-Rashed.

“The growth of the recycling sector generates meaningful employment opportunities and stimulates local entrepreneurship, bolstering economic resilience and societal prosperity.”