Saudi Arabia and Pakistan — redefining deterrence in the Middle East

Years ago, the concept of deterrence in international relations seemed somewhat unusual and even boring to ordinary people — almost like a theory confined to university classrooms and academic discussions. Yet the severe security repercussions witnessed in recent years, especially in the Middle East, which have shaken the very foundations of the international system, have made deterrence far more concrete and urgent. 

Moreover, it is now widely recognized as a rational and understandable policy by many. It is no longer an academic idea but an indispensable policy for ensuring the survival of states and preserving the stability of a regional order that grows more turbulent by the day. 

This also explains why military budgets have risen to the top of national priorities compared to other expenditures — an understandable shift considering the challenges of the past few years. Among the many voices on this subject, the words of Egyptian Field Marshal Mohamed Abu Ghazala remain especially enduring, even nearly two decades after his passing. When discussing deterrence, he warned that weakness is an open invitation to aggression, and that allowing the enemy even for a moment to contemplate an attack is itself a form of national betrayal.

Against this backdrop, the newly announced Saudi-Pakistani defense agreement appears to mark a redefinition of Riyadh’s doctrine. For the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, deterrence is no longer about merely displaying strength; it is about projecting absolute strength.

This new posture was formalized on Sept. 17 when the Kingdom signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement with Pakistan. According to official statements, any act of aggression against either country will be treated as an aggression against both.

For Saudi Arabia, deterrence is no longer about merely displaying strength; it is about projecting absolute strength.

The implications of this pact are profound. Regionally, it reinforces Saudi Arabia’s position and helps recalibrate a balance of power that had been unsettled by the uncalculated actions of a key regional actor. Internationally, it signals the emergence of a broader security framework capable of reshaping traditional alignments.

Seven decades of close cooperation between Riyadh and Islamabad have thus been crowned with this accord — one that effectively overturns political and military calculations at both regional and global levels. The sweeping nature of the agreement lies in its unambiguous pledge: An attack on one shall be regarded as an attack on both.

In this sense, the pact should be understood as a clear warning to any regional actor harboring reckless ambitions. Any attempt to destabilize the balance of power, impose demographic change in a Middle Eastern city, or replicate the devastation seen in Gaza would only invite other regional powers to join this alignment, thereby extending and strengthening it. Escalation would not only expand the scope of this alliance but also drive all actors to increase their military budgets, further straining national resources. The joint resolve of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan makes one conclusion unavoidable — peace is the only viable choice and embracing it is the shared path to stability and growth.

Finally, the agreement between Riyadh and Islamabad is more than a bilateral achievement; it is welcome news for all people in the region, as it carries the promise of greater stability and serves as a safeguard against reckless ambitions of hegemony.

From this point onward, any escalation or reckless behavior by any actor will not weaken the agreement but rather strengthen it, driving powers — both large and small — to rally around this alignment, most likely under Riyadh’s leadership.

Confronted with potential security repercussions that threaten the very fabric of the regional order, many countries in the Middle East may conclude that their survival depends on joining such security frameworks in order to safeguard and maximize their national interests.

• Nasser bin Hamed Al-Ahmad is a researcher and writer with more than seven years’ experience in political media. He specializes in analyzing political trends in the MENA region and US. X: @nasseralahmad3